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Friday 28 January 2011

The truth about Iran.

Iran is often viewed by the mainstream media as an evil dictatorship intent on developing nuclear missiles with the possibility of using them against Israel, this opinion is often viewed as fact and often ignores the clear hand that various countries including the United Kingdom have had in shaping the history of Iran.

In 1951 the Iranian Prime Minister Haj Ali Razmara was assassinated whilst attending a memorial service. A parliamentary vote took place and Dr. Mohammad Mosaddegh. After he took power he nationalized the countries oil industry which was extremely popular with the Iranian people, however the United Kingdom had controlled Iranian oil since 1913 and working together with the United States actively embargoed Iranian oil  and the CIA on request of MI6 started Operation Ajax which achieved it's goal in 1953 when Mohammad was assassinated and replaced with Mohammad Reza Pahlavi taking over as Shah of Iran. During Mohamad's reign with support from the United States the country became more autocratic and while the countries infrastructure was rapidly modernized all forms of political opposition was crushed with assistance from the US trained SAVAK. 

Dr. Mohammad Mosaddegh


After years of autocratic rule in Iran, political oppression and the view of the people that the country was a puppet of the United States and swerving away from it's Islamic values. In this time the Shah of Iran requested support from the United States however the CIA reported that a revolution was unlikely and the Shah would remain in power for at least 10 years.

The uprisings in Iran continued and continuing strikes paralysed the countries. The intelligence agency of Iran SAVAK attempted to quell the protests but the extremely high number of protesters in multiple cities and towns across the entire country meat that their was too many people to arrest and the security services were overwhelmed..The Shah attempted to quell the problems with the economy cut spending, these cutbacks led to a sharp rise in layoffs mostly among the young unskilled workers living in the city slums, these unemployed youth then joined the protests. The Shah of Iran tried one last ploy in attempt to keep power. Jafar Sharif-Emani was installed as the countries Prime Minister and reversed some of the Shah's policies. Casino's across the country were close, the imperial calendar was abolished and opposing political parties were legalized however the protests continued and by September the nation was rapidly losing control and major protests across the country were becoming a regular occurrence. The Shah introduced martial law and banned all public demonstrations however protests continued and on September the 8th security forces opened fire and dozens of civilians were killed.

Protests in Tehran


Various public blunders of the security services including the death of several high ranking Islamic officials and the Cinema Rex Fire which killed over 400 people and was blamed on the government as the centre was an important meeting point for protestors, this made the movement to other-throw that Shah viable in the minds in many Iranians boosting the support of the anti-government protests even more and leading to a general strike that resulted in the paralysis of the economy with vital industries being shut down and virtually sealing the Shah's fate. On December the 10th and 11th an estimated 6-9 million people took part in anti-shah demonstrations across the entire country and took part in marches, the Shah's position in the country had now deteriorated to the point when he no longer wanted to remain in power and only wanted to stay in Iran, however this was turned down by the opposition. In late December he agreed to leave the country temporarily but this was turned down by the opposition again. On January the 16th the Shah and the Empress left Iran and went into exile

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi


The events of the Islamic revolution led to the Iran-Iraq war. Saddam Hussein was interested in elevating Iraq into a strong regional power and a successful invasion of Iran would enlarge Iraq's oil and natural gas reserves and provide a substantial boost to the Iraqi economy. At the same time Ruhollah Khomeni believed that Muslims, participially the Shias in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were oppressed and should follow the example of the Iranian people and rise up against their governments to join a united Islamic Republic. At the same time a severe officer purge effected the Iranian military and a shortage of spare parts for Iran's American-made equipment crippled Iran's once mighty military and it was transformed into force comprised of mostly of poorly armed militia.

Relations between the two countries rapidly declined until in March 1980, Iran downgraded it's diplomatic ties with Iraq to the temporary level, withdrew it's ambassador and demanded that Iraq do the same. The tensions between the two nations in April when Iraq blamed the Iranian government for carrying out the attempted assassination of the Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Tarqiq Aziz. Three days later the bombing of a funeral procession being held to bury students who had died in the earlier attack was again blamed on Iran. On September the 22nd 1980, the Iraqi air force attacking Iran, assaulting ten airfields in Iran, although this air-raid failed to achieve the strategic objective of destroying the Iranian air force on the ground. The following day the Iraqi Army initiated a ground offensive of Iran along a massive front measuring over 300 miles, in three focused offensive fronts.

The Iranian Navy and Air Force began counter-offensive operations, targeting vital Iraqi oil infrastructure severely damaging the ability of Iraq to export oil.  The Iranian air force assaulted more diverse targets including dams, petrochemical facilities and even a nuclear reactor within Iraq. The Iraqi invasion soon encountered resistance to the invasion and their advance into Iran was stalled around March 1981. The Iraqi air force attempted to destroy the Iranian air force on the ground and destroy the infrastructure of the Iranian air force, however they destroyed to destroy a large number of aircraft. The Iraqi air-force only had Mig-23's, Tu-22's and Su-20's that were ineffective in a country as large as Iran. The Iranian air force countered these assaults using F-4's and attacked Iraqi targets, within a few days the Iranian air force had gained air supremacy over Iran allowing them to conduct ground attack missions with dedicated fighter-bomber aircraft and helicopters. The Iraqi Military was also surprised that the people of Iran rallied around their country and formed a stiff resistance against the Iraqi invaders. An estimated 200,000 volunteers arrived to the front lines and added to the Iranian defence of the country, providing a serious setback to the Iraqi military campaign.

Iranian Militia 


For about a year after the Iraqi offensive stalled there was little change of movement in the front, however in March 1982 Iran took the offensive and the Iraqi military was forced to retreat and by June of 1982 an Iranian counter-offensive had recovered the areas lost to Iraq in the earlier stages of the war, one of the most significant battle of the Iranian counter-offensive being the liberation of Khorramshahr which was seen as a turning point in the war as it was one of the earlier cities captured in the initial Iraqi offensive against Iran. Saddam then decided to totally withdraw his armed forces from Iran and decided that they should be deployed along the international border between Iraq and Iran most likely because Saddam believed that his army was too demoralized to fight another defensive battle inside Iran. 

Iranian F-14


On the 13th of July the Iranian military crossed the border into Iran in force, aiming towards the city of Basra, however the Iraqi army was more organized and had entrenched itself in formidable defences. Unlike the hastily improvised defences that the Iraqi army had quickly constructed and manned in Iran during the occupation of the conquered parts of Iran the border defences were well developed before the Iran-Iraq war and the Iraqi's used a highly advanced network of bunkers and artillery bases. In response to the deteriorating situation Saddam had also doubled the size of the Iraqi army from 500,000 to a total size of 1,000,000.

To counter the extremely well prepared Iraqi defences the Iranian military had been using combined-arms operations to a great effect while attacking Iraqi positions. Gigantic human wave attacks with support from artillery, aircraft and tanks, however the Iranian military began to suffer from a lack of ammunition and supplies and soon the massive human wave attacks were being launched without proper of any support from combined arms meant that the mass assaults by the Iranian military began to look like more like assaults undertaken during the first world war, even more so considering the Iraqi military began using chemical and biological weapons against Iranian positions, the combination of these factors decimated the ranks of the youth volunteers many of them children. After the failure of the Iranian summer offensive in 1982, Iran believed that only a major operation across the entire length of the front would bring the victory that they wanted. Iran however lacked the organization for the type of massive assault, although Iran was getting supplied from North Korea, Libya and China. Iraq had more supplies like the USSR and NATO nations, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Spain, Italy. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Germany and the United States. In February of 1984, Saddam ordered aerial and missile strikes to be permitted against eleven cities in Iran, the bombardment lasted until 22nd of the same month and in response Iran retaliated with similar strikes against urban centres in Iraq, from that occasion similar firing exchanges against urban centres continued through the course of the war. On the 15th of February, the Iranians launched a major attack against the cenre of the front, around 250,00 Iranians faced 250,000 Iraq's. The Iranian then carried out two other offensives aimed to capture the vital town of Kut al-Amara and to cut the key highway linking Baghdad and Basara, however the Iranian offensive stopped 15 miles short of the vital highway, however the next Iranian offensive operation met with greater success. The Iraqi defences under continuous strain since the start of the Iranian offensive nearly collapsed several times, however the Iraqi's managed to stabilize the front but not before the Iranians captured part of the Majnun. Despite a heavy Iraqi counter-attack combining the use of mustard gas and sarin nerve gas the Iranians held their ground. 

Iranian troops dug in.


A new factor of the war started when Iraq started attacking Iranian tankers and the Iranian oil terminal and Kharg island in 1984. Iran retaliated by attacking tankers carrying Iraqi oil from Kuwait and any tanker of the Persian gulf states support the nation in Iraq. Both Iran and Iraq started attacking oil tankers and merchant ships, including those neutral nations in an attempt to deprive the opponent of trade. Iraq declared that all ships going to or from Iranian ports in the North of Iran were subject to attack with Iraq. Iraq used F-1 Mirage and Mig-23 aircraft armed with Exocet anti-ship missiles to back up this thread. After repeated Iraqi attacks on Iran's main exporting facility on Khark Island, Iran attacked a Kuwaiti tank near Bahrain and a Saudi tank in Saudi waters. Attacks like this on ships on non-combat nations continued and increased after those incidents and was dubbed the 'tanker war'. During this time period the United States actively supported Iraq, causing several high profile incidents including the Iraqi air-force attack on a US naval vessel. Another major incident of this war was the illegal shoot down of Iran Air 665, this tragic event took place when a United States warship fired upon an Iran Air Airbus A300 when the tracking system of the ship had incorrectly labelled the aircraft as an F-14. In the following years both sides advanced very little and withstood massive casualties and both sides agreed to a peace on the 20th of August 1988. 

USS Stark after being hit with an Iraqi missile












Tuesday 25 January 2011

The Roller-coaster development of the F-35

When the JSF (Joint Strike Fighter Programme) started in 1993 it's goals was to create an advanced Fifth Generation fighter that could be exported to other NATO partners and United States allies (South Korea and Israel). After a tough competition the Lockheed F-35 beat the Boeing X-32. The Department of Defence stating that the VTOL system in the F-35 was more advanced and the engine in the X-32 was subject to poor reliability and overheating.


The F-35 is also meant to cut down on logistics and supplies, the aircraft is designed for coalition warfare. Meaning that various nations can share weapons and various other supplies to cut down maintenance costs during combat..


 "It greatly simplifies logistics, training and doctrine for coalition warfighting." - Richard Aboulafia


Although more then a decade after the Joint Strike Fighter Programme was formed and around eight years after development work on the F-35 has begun little progress seems to have been made. Currently only 13 prototypes of this aircraft exist and the programme has encountered countless set-backs and issues with the aircraft. United States Defence Secretary has even been quoted on stating that if the STOVL (Short-Take-Off and Landing) version of the F-35 could face cancellation. 
"if we cannot fix this variant during this time frame and get it back on track in terms of performance, cost and schedule, then I believe it should be cancelled." - United States Defence Secretary Robert Gates.
"The culture of endless money that has taken hold must be replaced by a culture of restraint," - Robert Gates 
Another issue with the current F-35 programme is the fact that two different engines are being developed for the aircraft. Rolls Royce and General electric are currently being paid to develop a new engine for the F-35 in case the initial Pratt & Whitney engines designed for the aircraft are not up to par. Adding further cost and time on to the F-35 programme. Private military analysts have even called the F-35 programme a bottomless money pit. 


The size differences of aircraft being developed and in use in the USAF


"The incredibly unfortunate phrase 'too big to fail' applies to this aircraft more than any other defense program," - Richard Aboulafia
"It's difficult to think of a civil or military program in the past decade that hasn't experienced similar delays and cost overruns." -  Richard Aboulafia
This comes after previous failures of the F-35 when the aft bulkhead of the F-35 developed cracks after 1,500 hours of durability testing, This is less than one-tenth of the planned fatigue test program, which is designed to prove an 8,000-hour airframe life. The bulkhead in the F-35 was modified in the F-35's weight saving programme switching from the proven forged titanium that is on use on the F-22 to a new aluminium forging process.  


The VTOL system used in the F-35




In 2009 the Department of Defence announced the theft of 1.5 terabytes of data on the F-35 project.  $300 billion dollars of funding down the drain, every system, defense, offense, stealth, everything needed to build one or shoot it down, all gone. nations whose defense capabilities were decades behind the US can now be at par, as the F-35 was estimated to be “air superiority capable” until at least 2040. Data stolen could make production of a comparable aircraft possible in as little as 36 months, particularly with several projects in the offing, Russia/India and in China, each of which are capable of quickly adapting upgraded systems. On top of these current air-defence systems could be easily modified to hunt down and easily take down the F-35, a serious blowback for United States power project across the world.



Monday 24 January 2011

Is the PLA out of control?

Recently the Chinese Military and Government have been the subject of intense scrutiny by the United States media, some pundits on the right of the political spectrum have claimed that the PLA operate without the control of the Chinese Government. People quote that the Chinese Premier seemed quite surprised when he was asked about the new stealth fighter the Chinese are currently developing. In my opinion these views are incorrect and can be solved quite easily with logic and a basic grasp of the facts.

China is currently and emerging economy, countless economic experts from various countries across the world agree that it's only a matter of time before the Chinese economy out-paces and overwhelms the United States economy and the Chinese become the worlds largest economic super-power, however one thing is missing from this picture. Military power and projection, currently the United States military has the largest and most advanced army, navy and air-force in the world it's military budget is far larger then all the current countries combined and it's naval fleet is larger in both size and displacement then the entire navy of every single country currently in the European Union. It's fact that the United States is the foremost military power currently in the world.

The Chinese Government knows this and it wishes to cement it's place as the dominant region power in South East Asia however it cannot do this. The PLA is underdeveloped, lacking major armour, artillery, naval and air-support relying on vast amounts of man-power and old artillery in an attempt to overwhelm the enemy in a tactic that was last tried by the Soviet Union during the Second World War.

The PLA was quite content with it's military doctrine until a few decades ago until several major events happened which quite violently shock the PLA to it's core and awakened it to the latest tactics in modern warefare. In the 90's the United States Air-Force managed to successfully defeat the defences of the Former Yugoslavia and Iraq without suffering major losses to enemy defences. The PLA then realized that their military would not last long in a defensive war against the United States unless they drastically modernized their military, so began a massive modernization scheme.

The modernization of the PLA came at quite a good time for the Chinese Government. The world economy was quite healthy and the world economy demanded cheap produce from China, the Chinese economy was booming. The Chinese Government could afford to spend vast fortunes on development programmes for aircraft, armour and naval vessels. At the same time Russia was still suffering from the collapse of the Soviet Union, worse effected was the Russian aircraft sector, the fall of communism had completely decimated the Russian economy and no money was left for researching new aircraft for the Russian air-force. Most effected is by the collapse of the Soviet Union was the company Mikoyan, after the Russian economy was saved from total collapse the Russian Air-Force sent out multiple contracts for new aircraft to modernize the new Russian Air-Force. Mikovan submitted several plans however all were rejected, finally after several attempts the company submitted an advanced fifth generation aircraft as part of a competition to decide the next fighter for the Russian air-force. The Mig 1.44 was created and developed with Mikovan placing a lot of effort into the plane however it was rejected and another plane now underdevelopment as the PAK FA was chosen. Mikovan at that time was deeply annoyed with the Russian Government and was in deep need of contracts. The Chinese Government was in need of advanced technology, the logical conclusion is that the Chinese Government requested and paid for the assistance of several highly skilled developers from Mikovan to help design a new fighter aircraft for the PLAAF. Milovan was quite desperate for contracts so supplied them with details from the Mig.144 and the J-20 was created.
The Chinese Military has undergone further modernization. Currently the PLAAF (Chinese Air-Force) have employed modern aircraft such as the J-10 aircraft into their inventory an aircraft that has the same capabilities as the American F-16 and similar aircraft in Taiwan. The Chinese Army has also undergone modernization with new Tanks, Infantry fighting vehicles, armoured personal carriers, artillery and small arms under production for use by the front line troops. The Navy has also undergone similar modernization with recent Chinese frigates and submarines catching up with the latest technology being used by NATO forces.

All this modernization has been focused towards one major goal. For decades the Chinese government has had it's foreign and economic policy be dictated by the United States. It's carrier groups and large amount of allies in the region have created a hostile environment in the eyes of the political elite in the Chinese Government, much like the Russian government see NATO as a force being used to surround and destroy the Russian Federation. China simply wants to ward the United States away from South East Asia and replace the United States as the dominant regional super-power both economically and militarily and the Chinese have some good reason to.

Currently the United States government patrols the waters and skies of South East Asia. They have specially designed vessels that monitor movements by air and naval units in the vicinity. The United States navy has been caught several times snooping around several major PLA Naval bases including the base of operations from the Chinese Nuclear Submarine fleet when a spy ship was intercepted and several Chinese trawling vessels attempted to stop the vessel.

Imagine a scenario. The Chinese military send it's most advanced warships, submarines, aircraft and military units to Cuba. While in Cuba they perform naval, air and land exercises with the Cuban military and perform these drills quite close to the coast of the United States (although still within respected waters). How would the United States Government and Media react to this massive showing of force right outside it's doorstep?

That's what the Chinese Government feels every single time the United States Military perform a massive military exercise with Taiwan, a country with extremely poor relations with China (several incidents have occurred when sides have exchanged heavy weapons fire) .

Imagine if the Chinese 'decided to follow the same tactics of the United States Navy and gather some intel on the capabilities of several major facilities belonging to the United States Navy. Imagine of several Chinese 'fishing' vessel were caught outside several major United States naval bases and was found to be recording information on levels of security and levels of supplies and readiness in case of a sudden Pearl Harbour like attack. I

The Chinese Government face a lot of harassment from the United States Military. It's extremely active presence in South East Asia is seen as a risk to Chinese national security, in response to decades to harassment and the rise of the Chinese economy the Chinese Government has undergone a vast modernization programme for the PLA to improve it's power project in South East Asia, aiming to become the largest military power in the world and complete the Chinese take over from the United States as the worlds most powerful nation. The PLA is not out of control, in fact it's totally in control and on the path of becoming the most powerful armed forces in the world.