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Saturday 22 October 2011

Libya after Gaddafi

Previously in the Libyan conflict it was the overwhelming urge to either kill or capture Colonel Gaddafi that kept the differing ethnicities and factions in Libya together, they had a united front that they all agreed on and could co-operate together to achieve however the death of Gaddafi could now mean disaster for the region as it did for another country after the death of their dictator.

The differing ethnic divisions of Libya are reminiscent of the ethnic divisions once present in the Former Yugoslavia and similarities continue to exist between the two countries. Gaddafi and Tito both ruled and maintained the unity of their country with an ion fist using security forces to ruthlessly crush any dissent and although Tito was not assassinated his death still effected the once unbreakable bond between the different ethnicities in the Former Yugoslavia and the region erupted in flames, a period of time known for horrific ethnic cleansing and the NATO bombing campaign of Serbia.

Bombing of Belgrade. NATO could find itself getting involved  in another ethnically driven civil war.

Libya could easily slip into a full blown nationalist civil war promoted by the ethnic divides in the country, reports have already circulated that bickering has erupted from within the ranks of the rebels with the rebels from cities in the East like Benghazi claiming that they deserve a major role in the shaping of the country as they were the first to rise up against the Gaddafi regime while the Berber's in the Nafusa Mountains are saying that they are being repressed once again and they held a key role in the taking of Tripoli and the rebels that fought in Misratah are claiming that they deserve a large role in the future politics in the country as the fought in some of the toughest street fighting in the country that tipped the balance of the conflict against Gaddafi. 

Rebels celebrate Gaddafi s death


It's just not the tribes that are causing rising tensions in the country, in the civil war over a dozen militia units, some existing before the revolution and some formed during the revolution pledged their support to over-turn Gaddafi, the major stepping stone to avoiding another bloody ethnically driven civil war is for the National Transitional Council to be able to peacefully merge the existing Militia units into one organized new Libyan Military a goal that seems highly unlikely given the fact that current weapon stores liberated from the forces of Gaddafi has been taken back to regional militia strongholds instead of being given to the NTC.

Only time will tell if the National Transitional Council can over-come these ethnic challenges in time to create an interim government and organize the countries first democratic elections in as little as eight months.